by From Will Dunham
Washington (Reuters) new observations of a small asteroid discovered in December have brought the astronomers to the conclusion that the probability that the probability of earth on earth is almost zero after earlier data had a higher risk of collision with this space rock (40-90 meters) wide.
The asteroid, which is designated for 2024 years, circles a path that brings it near the earth in 2032. Scientists previously calculated the probability of around 3%, the highest value that was ever recorded for such an object.
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The new data received from the Chile-based very large telescope and other facilities of the European Southern Observatory gave a more precise picture of the future trajectory of the asteroid. According to the near-earth object coordination center of the European Space Authority, the likelihood of effectiveness was reduced to 0.001%, while the Jet Propulsion laboratory from NASA lowered it to 0.004%.
“The risk is falling,” said Olivier Hainaut, an astronomer at the European Southern Observatory in Germany.
NASA placed the likelihood that the asteroid beat the moon to 1.7%.
The asteroid has been closely monitored since its discovery due to the potential threat he represents. An effect could possibly cause regional devastation and a significant loss of life.
“An object 10 meters (33 feet) would have an influence with the same energy as the Hiroshima bomb,” said Hainaut, who estimated that an effect of YR4 500 times would be more energetic than that.
“Fortunately, it is very likely that most of this energy will be unloaded in the high atmosphere when the asteroid comes in. Nevertheless, it is a rather large explosion that could damage a urban area,” added Hainaut.
Asteroids occasionally beat the earth about their long history, often with catastrophic results. For example, an asteroid that was estimated on 10-15 km wide-much greater than in 2024 years of the coast of the Mexican Peninsula Yucatan 66 million years ago, which ends around three quarters of the World People and the Age of Dinosaurs.
In 2022, NASA carried out a planetary defense mission by Proof-of-Princle by using its Roboter-Dart spaceship to change the trajectory of the asteroid dimorphoses, looking at this in the future if you appear on a collision course with the earth.
Astronomers learn more and more about asteroids. For example, NASA’s robot-osiris-Rex room vehicles traveled to an asteroid named Bennu and collected samples of rock and dust in 2020, which, according to a study published in January, bore some of the chemical building blocks in life.
Another study estimated the potential damage that is caused when an asteroid strikes the size of Bennu – with a diameter of about three tenths of a mile (500 meters). Scientists have estimated a 1-to-2.700 chance for a Bennu collision with soil in 2182.
Apart from the immediate devastation, the researchers estimated that an effect of an asteroid of Bennu size would inject 100 to 400 million tons of dust into the atmosphere, which leads to disorders in the climate, atmospheric chemistry and global photosynthesis of three to four years.
(Reporting according to Will Dunham in Washington; Editor of Daniel Wallis)
